Unsettled weather has begun and continues through the weekend
April 25, 2024 Morning Forecast
HASTINGS, Neb. (KSNB) - Showers and thunderstorms this morning continue to push east across most of the area. The strongest storms are over North Central Kansas and far South Central Nebraska. Large hail over an inch in diameter continues to be the biggest threat. Some weaker showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring farther north for other areas. These will continue push to the east, taking the severe threat with it. Some light rain and drizzle will stick around today. The clouds will keep temperatures on the cooler side. Highs will only reach the upper 50s and low to mid 60s. Southeast winds will become rather strong, getting up to around 15 to 25 mph with gusts to around 35 mph.
Later today, the severe weather threat will ramp up as a warm front lifts northward through Kansas, toward the Nebraska state line by the evening. Supercell thunderstorms are expected to develop over Western Kansas and possibly far Southwest Nebraska. These will push north and eastward late in the afternoon and into this evening. They should enter southwestern parts of the Local4 viewing area around or shortly after suppertime. As these continue to lift northeastward into more of the area, they will gradually weaken as they get farther north of the warm front into a more stable atmosphere. But initially, there is concern of all modes of severe weather early in the evening in places like McCook, Alma, and Phillipsburg, Kansas. Very large hail over golf ball size hail, 60 mph or stronger wind gusts, and even a few tornadoes will be possible. As these storms lift northeastward, the threat gets lower, but will still be there for some large hail and strong wind gusts. The farther north and east you go, the lower the severe threat gets. The threat should be done by around 2:00am to 4:00am. Some showers and isolated thunderstorms may linger into early Friday morning.
Tomorrow morning, the best chance for continued showers and isolated thunderstorms will be over Northern and Western Nebraska. Meanwhile, the rest of the area will get a lull in the activity as some dry air moves into southern and eastern areas just ahead of an area of low pressure that moves in Southwest Nebraska. Temperatures ahead of the low will rise up into the 70s. But to the north and west of the low, they will likely remain in the 60s. Right around the noon hour, the low will be moving into Central Nebraska and new thunderstorms are expected to fire up very close to, and the the north and east of the low. I could see a potential arc of supercells developing north and east of the Tri-Cities, push north and eastward through the afternoon. The strongest storms will likely be over Eastern Nebraska east of Highway 81, but there is potential for a few of those farther west as well. All modes of severe weather will be possible, including tornadoes. Around or shortly after suppertime, the threat for severe storms should push off to the northeast of our area, while a few wrap around showers remain. Later in the night, the rain will move out and we should get some partial clearing. There will be a break in the action most of Friday night through mid afternoon Saturday.
The next storm system to impact our area follows the path of the last one, although the low may be just a bit farther southeast than this first system. Still severe weather seems plausible for at least southeastern portions of the Local4 viewing area. Any shift northwestward with the low and more of our area could be in line for severe weather. Late in the afternoon and into Saturday evening, thunderstorms will develop, bringing a threat for all modes of severe weather. The chances are best in far southeastern portions of the Local4 viewing area. Farther northwest, there may not be as much of a tornado threat, but some large hail will still be possible. As the air stabilizes Sunday, the severe weather threat does come down quite a bit. It isn’t zero, but it is very low. Meanwhile, showers and thunderstorms may linger into Sunday morning before clearing sometime Sunday afternoon. Saturday’s high temperatures could play out somewhat similar to Friday where 70s and lower 80s will be possible over southeastern areas while cooler 50s and 60s reside to the northwest. The cooler air overtakes more of the area on Sunday where highs range from the mid 40s northwest to the lower 70s southeast. It’s those far eastern and southeastern areas that may still try to sneek in an isolated thunderstorm.
These two storm systems over the next four days should bring a large part of the area some decent rain. Many locations will be prone to picking up one to two inches of rain. There will be some that will get a little bit more or a little bit less. In fact, parts of Northern Kansas have already seen an inch or two of rain this morning.
Temperatures will trend warmer next week as we start to see more widespread highs in the 70s and even some lower 80s. There are some occasional chances for showers and thunderstorms at times, but it’s still fairly early for the day-to-day details. We’ll get into those more after these first two systems pass.
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